Exclusive: More than 16,200 ads hit airwaves to sway Senate vote on Brett Kavanaugh

WASHINGTON – Groups trying to sway the Senate’s vote on Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh have run more than 16,200 ads clamoring for his confirmation or defeat, nearly five times the advertising that confronted Neil Gorsuch, President Donald Trump’s first pick to the high court last year, a USA TODAY analysis of advertising data shows.

The advertising frenzy illustrates the intensity of the brawl over his nomination and the shadow it could cast over midterm elections, now less than two months away.

The Senate Judiciary Committee on Thursday set a Sept. 20 date for a vote on Kavanaugh’s nomination, following four days of boisterous confirmation hearings.

Republicans, who hold a narrow 51-49 majority in the Senate, are racing to confirm Kavanaugh before the high court’s next session begins Oct. 1 and help cement the court’s conservative majority before Election Day.

USA TODAY examined advertising data compiled by Kantar’s Campaign Media Analysis Group, starting July 9, when Trump nominated Kavanaugh, through Sept. 7, the final day of his confirmation hearings on Capitol Hill.

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Republicans have run more than 11,300 ads in that time, far surpassing the 4,921 spots from Democrats, the analysis shows. The GOP’s firepower is trained most heavily on Democratic incumbents in West Virginia, North Dakota, Missouri and Indiana, all states that backed Trump by double digits in 2016.

Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, D-N.D., who voted to confirm Gorsuch is the top target in Round 2 of the Supreme Court confirmation battle, with more than 3,100 ads running in her state since Kavanaugh’s nomination.

“You’re talking about the seat on the highest court in the land, one that will have long-term implications on American policy for decades,” said Brian O. Walsh, the president of the pro-Trump advocacy group America First Policies, which has aired more than 1,500 ads supporting Kavanaugh.

“How do you not try to put everything you can into that effort?” he said.

For their part, Democrats, led by the recently launched Demand Justice Initiative, are spending heavily to sway two moderate Republicans, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine, to oppose Kavanaugh.

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Health care, abortion and the specter of a conservative majority tossing out the court’s landmark Roe v. Wade abortion-rights decision dominate the liberal advertising.

“Roe v. Wade is at stake, my access to health care is at stake, everything is at stake now,” one woman in a Planned Parenthood Action ad running in Alaska says to the camera. 

Although Democrats are running fewer ads than Republicans in the Kavanaugh fight, their spending marks a sharp increase from the 2017 battle over Gorsuch, who replaced arch-conservative Justice Antonin Scalia on the court.

Kavanaugh, a 53-year-old federal appellate judge, is in line to replace Justice Anthony Kennedy, a swing vote on issues ranging from abortion and gay rights to affirmative action.

“The stakes are much higher now,” said Patrick Hickey, a political scientist at West Virginia University. “We’re sort of changing the court’s partisan balance.”

Demand Justice, formed in May as a liberal counterweight in judicial ad wars, is the only progressive group that aired ads focused on red-state Democrats during the period examined.

“We know that they’re getting carpet-bombed by the pro-Kavanaugh forces,” said Brian Fallon, Demand Justice’s executive director. “We want to ensure that the voters in those states are hearing the other sides.”

Demand Justice aired nearly 3,200 ads this summer opposing Kavanaugh. Only the conservative Judicial Crisis Network ran more, airing more than 3,500 that largely tout his credentials.

“We want to make sure we’re out there to set the record straight,” said Carrie Severino, the chief counsel and policy director at the Judicial Crisis Network. “We’re prepared to spend what we need to.”

The intensifying pressure on senators spilled into public view this week as Collins, the Maine Republican, reported receiving threatening calls and letters about the impending Kavanaugh vote.

Collins also criticized as possible “extortion” a controversial crowdfunding campaign that has collected more than $1.1 million to donate to a future Collins opponent should she vote “yes” on Kavanaugh.

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